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Jeffrey Baron's avatar

Pretty gloomy, although accurate. Fortunately, the sun is out.

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Peter D. Jacobson's avatar

Good question. The shift in Biden to Trump voters in the 2024 election can be explained through both cultural and economic factors. If culture dominated more than economic, it will take a deep recession (Ala 2008) to move those voters. But if the economic (especially inflation) actually dominated, a standard recession may be sufficient. Since I lean toward the cultural as being more significant, I lean toward a deep recession before Congress will be forced to counter Trump's agenda, all other factors (such as the Israeli-Iranian war) being equal.

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