Even a small number of disaffected loyal Republicans can help add a margin to Biden's 2020 numbers. "Unfavorable" numbers in polls don’t measure the depth of dislike.
Shocking, I know, but I agree with all your points. However, the failure to measure intensity of feeling works both ways. Trump's people are intensely for him. Can Biden get the record turnout required as he did in 2020? Not that many people sound enthusiastic about Biden. Turnout is the primary variable. I hope and think you are right, but it is far from a sure thing. On the Haley issue, I find that I am hoping for her to beat Trump (however unlikely), even if her presidency would be a major step backward. There is a real risk that the democracy would be destroyed under a second Trump presidency and we would become a fascist state. I don't think I would take a 10 percent risk of that (if I could choose). Haley looks like she would win now but talk about losing votes, how would she do with the MAGA crowd after Trump explains that she cheated and stole the the nomination.
I've always had a different view of Trump's 2016 win in the four key states. If my math is correct the 107,000 votes for Trump would only have to be 53.500+ less, going to Clinton for her to have won. Otherwise I remain hopeful that your analysis is correct.
Your number is closer to what I remember after 2016, but the number I used is what I found. I admit I was too time-restricted to go back and do the math myself.
Those numbers work if 53501 Trump votes went for Clinton but more likely those voters if not voting for Trump would stay home, then you need 107000. There were a million usually reliable democrat votes staying at home in those states in 2016
"Donald Trump has a problem no matter what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday night: There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee."
Let it be so. Even Hailey is better than Trump. He needs to go away but we can only hope.
Shocking, I know, but I agree with all your points. However, the failure to measure intensity of feeling works both ways. Trump's people are intensely for him. Can Biden get the record turnout required as he did in 2020? Not that many people sound enthusiastic about Biden. Turnout is the primary variable. I hope and think you are right, but it is far from a sure thing. On the Haley issue, I find that I am hoping for her to beat Trump (however unlikely), even if her presidency would be a major step backward. There is a real risk that the democracy would be destroyed under a second Trump presidency and we would become a fascist state. I don't think I would take a 10 percent risk of that (if I could choose). Haley looks like she would win now but talk about losing votes, how would she do with the MAGA crowd after Trump explains that she cheated and stole the the nomination.
Ben,
I've always had a different view of Trump's 2016 win in the four key states. If my math is correct the 107,000 votes for Trump would only have to be 53.500+ less, going to Clinton for her to have won. Otherwise I remain hopeful that your analysis is correct.
Your number is closer to what I remember after 2016, but the number I used is what I found. I admit I was too time-restricted to go back and do the math myself.
Those numbers work if 53501 Trump votes went for Clinton but more likely those voters if not voting for Trump would stay home, then you need 107000. There were a million usually reliable democrat votes staying at home in those states in 2016
Looks like Politico has come a similar conclusion: "Donald Trump has a big problem ahead," https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
"Donald Trump has a problem no matter what happens in New Hampshire on Tuesday night: There’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee."